While a future of shared, autonomous and electric vehicles may well be the consequence of disruption, the actual development of those cars will be complex. Slow dealmaking. We see the development of the urban air mobility ecosystem as extremely long-dated, with up-front capital allocation, testing, and development in the short term, says Jonas. Privacy & Cookies We have global expertise in market analysis and in advisory and capital-raising services for corporations, institutions and governments. Proprietary views on big ideas with the potential for far-reaching consequences. Morgan Stanley's U.S. Research teams worked together to identify 30 companies that they believe are favorably exposed to growth opportunities in a world moving toward shared mobility, autonomous driving, and electrification. For Morgan StanleyResearchon urban air mobility, ask your Morgan Stanley representative orFinancial Advisorfor the full report, Flying Cars: Investment Implications of Autonomous Urban Air Mobility" (Dec. 2, 2018). A transition to electric vehicles could be equal to one-third of total U.S. From our startup lab to our cutting-edge research, we broaden access to capital for diverse entrepreneurs and spotlight their success. 1 The Relative Frequency of Unsafe Driving Acts (Background), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, August 15, 2017. Morgan Stanley leadership is dedicated to conducting first-class business in a first-class way. The first challenge was for participants to demonstrate the safe operation of a piloted or remotely piloted aircraft capable of carrying at least one adult passenger within a simulated, challenging urban environment.". Electric-powered vehicles can deliver yet more efficiency. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/P4wD5TtDUH For Morgan StanleyResearchon the future of battery powered vehicles, ask your Morgan Stanley representative orFinancial Advisorfor the full report, On the Charge, (Aug. 31, 2017). We lead with exceptional ideas, prioritize diversity and inclusion and find meaningful ways to give backall to contribute to a future that benefits our clients and communities. The semiconductor industry has benefited for decades from the digitalization of vehicles and driving in general, but autonomous cars represent a sophisticated blend of computer power and artificial intelligence for navigating the countless number of real-world driving scenariosin real time. "We see the first serious application of fully autonomous transport to be in the form of public-private partnerships at a hyper-localized level of a city center," Jonas says. Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. 5 Sustainable Investing Trends for Companies and Investors, 7 Investment Ideas That Could Drive Markets in 2023, Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley, one billion battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Improvements in batteries, artificial intelligence and satellite communications are also expanding the possibilities. See how we can help you work toward your goalseven as they evolve over years or generations. It involves creating two autonomous systems one using only cameras, the other radar and lidar that can operate safely on their own, then bringing the two systems together. Plus, moreIdeas. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley. That pace of growth is much higher than the estimated production of cars and light vehicles during the same period. The list features employees from Tesla, Zoox, Morgan Stanley, and more. The first applications should take the form of small fleets, traveling slower than 25 miles per hour, fully autonomous, fully electric, and geographically limited to as little as one square mile. As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. Stay on top of today's volatile markets with these timely resources. Driven an hour a day, savings on gasoline from electrification aren't sufficient to justify the upfront added cost of the car. All rights reserved. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Flying cars could initially gain market share from cars on the road, planes and public transportation. Sign up to get Morgan Stanley Ideas delivered to your inbox. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors. Since Nuro's delivery vehicles don't carry people, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ruled they didn't need some features that would be required in passenger cars, like side mirrors and windshields. "Vehicle sharing can only take your vehicle utilization to about 50%-60% of its full potential, in our view," says Jonas. We rely on our technologists around the world to create leading-edge, secure platforms for all our businesses. Called STEEPL, the tool is used to gauge a region's social, technological, economic, environmental, political and legal landscape as it pertains to the automotive market. portfolio liquidity) of events. Puneeth Meruva is the firm's "first filter" in deciding which companies to invest in, Trucks general partner Reilly Brennan told Insider. Browning and Argo have also impressed Sam Abuelsamid, a research analyst at Guidehouse Insights who covers automotive technology. Member FINRA/SIPC. For instance, one of the key drivers of autonomous vehicle adoption is improved safety. Information does not address financial objectives, situation or specific needs of individual investors. Ideas across disciplines uncover novel insights for sharper decision-making. In 1940, automaker Henry Ford said, Mark my words: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming. Ford was teased for the statement, but now, decades later, the same technologies that power drones and steer autonomous vehicles could launch flying cars from the pages of sci-fi comics to the skies of our cities. Counterpoint Global investigates the impact of quantum computers and its potential to tackle previously unsolvable computing problems. See how we can help you work toward your goalseven as they evolve over years or generations. Our monthly Global Equity Observer shares our thoughts on world events as seen through the lens of our high quality investment process. Morgan Stanleys U.S.Researchteams worked together to identify 30 companies that they believe are favorably exposed to growth opportunities in a world moving toward shared mobility, autonomous driving, and electrification. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the articles PDF. In recent months, Motional has taken the backup drivers out of some of its test vehicles and, in 2023, the company plans to expand its relationship with Lyft by launching a fully autonomous ride-hailing service. In Europe, extensive public transportation options and the political strength of auto and parts manufacturers are obstacles to shared vehicle adoption, but electric vehicles bode well for the region's strengthening emissions standards. While battery costs have dropped nearly 30% per year for the past five years, that decrease largely has been a function of improved production scale, which now is diminishing. Limitations remain, primarily related to batteries and propulsion technology. Underpinning all that we do are five core values. Counterpoint Globals culture fosters collaboration, creativity, continued development, and differentiated thinking. An early member of Zoox, Ashu Rege leads the company's software team. We live that commitment through long-lasting partnerships, community-based delivery and engaging our best assetMorgan Stanley employees. Underpinning all that we do are five core values. Proprietary views on big ideas with the potential for far-reaching consequences. There is no assurance that a Portfolio will achieve its investment objective. We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. We value our commitment to diverse perspectives and a culture of inclusion across the firm. 5 Sustainable Investing Trends for Companies and Investors, 7 Investment Ideas That Could Drive Markets in 2023, Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley, hours people spend annually driving and riding in cars, India, a country with growing Internet access. That's around a billion tons of TNTthe energy equivalent of some 60 thousand WWII-era atomic bombs. On the other hand, the country's social landscape is discouraging, as private car ownership is deeply woven into the American cultural fabric. In general,equities securitiesvalues also fluctuate in response to activities specific to a company. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. And, Brennan said, her connections are second to none. We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world. Most of the battery cell costs are driven by the price of materials and composition, Hendrikse says. For instance, one of the key drivers of autonomous vehicle adoption is improved safety. A monthly outlook for global fixed income markets, including an in-depth review of key sectors. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. In 1940, automaker Henry Ford said, "Mark my words: a combination airplane and motorcar is coming." Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. However, OEMS and suppliers which provide superior technology (hardware, software, integrated experiential design) or quality and scale for key features (fuel efficiency, safety, lightweight materials, etc.) According to Nicholas Ashworth, Co-Head of European Utilities Research, a consensus has yet to emerge on the number of public charging points needed to service the BEV fleet. After an exceptional year for mergers and acquisitions in 2018, Morgan Stanley bankers expect the market to stay strong, albeit with some shifting dynamics. The global presence that Morgan Stanley maintains is key to our clients' success, giving us keen insight across regions and markets, and allowing us to make a difference around the world. Andrej Karpathy is a key figure behind the development of Tesla's Autopilot driver-assistance system. Our board of directors and senior executives hold the belief that capital can and should benefit all of society. Its new report, Autonomous Vehicles & Municipal Bonds, puts the net positive impact on municipal budgets in excess of half a trillion dollars. For European banks, financial inclusion is not only socially responsibleit may help drive sustained economic growth in emerging markets. During a brief appearance at a Morgan Stanley conference today, CEO Elon Musk briefly commented that the vehicles to be built on Tesla's next-gen platform will operate "almost entirely in. We leverage the full resources of our firm to help individuals, families and institutions reach their financial goals. Meet one of our Financial Advisors and see how we can help you. We rely on our technologists around the world to create leading-edge, secure platforms for all our businesses. Morgan Stanley helps people, institutions and governments raise, manage and distribute the capital they need to achieve their goals. For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the articles PDF. Get the latest insights, analyses and market trends in our newsletter, podcasts and videos. Your Privacy Choices Before joining Aurora, in 2019, she was Lyft's director of business development and strategy, where she focused on automated-driving technology. Morgan Stanley thinks time spent in cars will jump by 25% by 2030 and these stocks will benefit. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services. But the shift to BEVs means up to 50% of the value of the car could migrate from mechanical to electrical systems and electronics. Yeung notes that the Chinese government has invested heavily in public transportation. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. Before joining Nuro, Estrada helped develop early autonomous-vehicle regulations at Google. At Morgan Stanley, youll find trusted colleagues, committed mentors and a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration. For decades, the health of the automotive industry has been measured by the number of vehicles sold. Already, a few large automakers who dont have electric-powered models have announced plans to introduce their own BEV lines. We offer timely, integrated analysis of companies, sectors, markets and economies, helping clients with their most critical decisions. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. Ideas across disciplines uncover novel insights for sharper decision-making. Ask your Morgan Stanley representative or Financial Advisorfor the full report, The Shared Autonomous 30 (Sep 22, 2016). This material is for the benefit of persons whom the Firm reasonably believes it is permitted to communicate to and should not be forwarded to any other person without the consent of the Firm. In November 2013 Morgan Stanley announced their blue paper report: "Autonomous Cars: Self-Driving the New Auto Industry Paradigm." The authors predicted trillions in savings but the announcement provided little data on where those savings would come from. While it's true that electric cars have hardly taken the market by storm, Jonas notes that, today, the same low utilization of private cars that so invites market disruption also torpedoes any cost efficiencies an electric car could deliver. As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. At Morgan Stanley, youll find trusted colleagues, committed mentors and a culture that values diverse perspectives, individual intellect and cross-collaboration. Across all our businesses, we offer keen insight on today's most critical issues. There are also schemes where the end user pays a fixed monthly fee affording them unlimited miles, akin to mobile phone pricing, says Ashworth. Plus, more Ideas. Privately placed and restricted securitiesmay be subject to resale restrictions as well as a lack of publicly available information, which will increase their illiquidity and could adversely affect the ability to value and sell them (liquidity risk). Discover who we are and the right opportunity for you. Prior to 2026, Morgan Stanley predicts our cars will be able to be driven autonomously, but the driver will need to remain attentive in the case of an emergency, as the infrastructure for autonomous cars will not be fully developed. It won't exceed 25 miles per hour, but it does have electric motors in all four wheels for slippery roads and tight corners. Under Estrada, Nuro has also become the first company to test driverless vehicles in three states, a Nuro spokesperson told Insider. From our origins as a small Wall Street partnership to becoming a global firm of more than 80,000 employees today, Morgan Stanley has been committed to clients and communities for 87 years. They also may be subject to counterparty, liquidity, valuation, correlation and market risks. In fact, it doesn't even have a steering wheel, or pedals, or a gas tank. For further details, please see our Terms of Use. Counterpoint Global investigates the impact of quantum computers and its potential to tackle previously unsolvable computing problems. Apple's potential autonomous car is called the ultimate EV bear case by Morgan Stanley Nov. 19, 2021 7:50 AM ET Apple Inc. (AAPL) , TSLA , APTV , BWA GM , AN , CAR , RACE , CVNA , QS , FSR , LCID . Tell us about yourself. Privacy & Cookies We provide comprehensive workplace financial solutions for organizations and their employees, combining personalized advice with modern technology. It may have taken professional auto industry analysts some time to understand the impact of autonomous vehicles. Were seeing opportunities for a growing fleet of electric, shared, and autonomous VTOL aircraft or other large terrestrial drones, says Rajeev Lalwani, lead analyst covering U.S. Airlines, Aerospace & Defense, and Aircraft Lessors. National Highway Transportation Safety A dministration (NHTSA 2013): For automakers, BEVs are a game changer. As expected, addressing safety will be at the top of regulators' lists. In the autonomous-vehicle industry, it can be difficult to identify the most important supporting players from the outside. Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. A comprehensive assessment of noteworthy trends shaping the global investment risk environment and our portfolio allocations. Illiquid securitiesmay be more difficult to sell and value than public traded securities (liquidity risk). "And as long as these vehicles are human-driven, logistical inefficiencies will persist. We offer scalable investment products, foster innovative solutions and provide actionable insights across sustainability issues. Its not surprising that so many firms are directing significant strategic efforts and investment toward delivering and monetizing content and data opportunities. For example, with an ability to make four times as many trips as a regular car, flying cars could revolutionize the ride-sharing industry. Urban Air Mobility Global Total Addressable Market (Base Case). A Morgan Stanley team of analysts, including noted Apple analyst Katy Huberty, estimates that by 2040 the time humans spend inside cars will reach 1.2 trillion hours a year, up from 600. As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. See how you can continue your career journey at Morgan Stanley. will be well-positioned for long-term growth. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively the Firm), and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers. Such a future of shared, fully electric, driverless cars on demand is closer to reality than it might appear. We help people, businesses and institutions build, preserve and manage wealth so they can pursue their financial goals. Currently, they control much of the value of the car by designing and producing the major structures, powertrain, major systems and, of course, branding and distribution. Morgan Stanley is differentiated by the caliber of our diverse team. Morgan Stanley: Autonomous Cars May Save US a Trillion Dollars Home Transportation [INFOGRAPHIC] Autonomous Cars Could Save The US $1.3 Trillion Dollars A Year Benjamin Zhang Sep 12,. Morgan Stanley's Wilson Says Hawkish Fed Surprise to Roil Stocks. Toward that end, the CEO of a major airplane manufacturer announced in September, 2018, that the company is investing in urban mobility and flying taxis." More companies are designing for the IoT, using tiny low-cost sensors to enable connectivity and controlgiving a boost to the semiconductor sector. But electric cars could be seen as a welcome solution to China's concerns about air pollution, and its growing Internet and mobile app market has already opened the door to the development of on-demand ride-hailing technology. Global institutions, leading hedge funds and industry innovators turn to Morgan Stanley for sales, trading and market-making services. Learn from our industry leaders about how to manage your wealth and help meet your personal financial goals. However, the picture isnt entirely rosy for suppliers. After all, 600 billion hours is a lot of time to spend in vehicles that you arent driving. In logistics, drone package delivery is in active testing. Today's shared vehicles still have drivers, but if the market's full potential is to be reached, that too will change. All rights reserved. "Smartphones are a $500bn annual TAM. Advancements in mobile technology that allow users to summon cars from their smartphones have already made sharing more convenient, and more progress is to come. Morgan Stanley Distribution, Inc. Hannah Miao @hannahmiao_. Illiquid securitiesmay be more difficult to sell and value than public traded securities (liquidity risk). Andy Piper has led the development of Zoox's eponymous vehicle, which the company unveiled in 2020. Our insightful research, advisory and investing capabilities give us unique and broad perspective on sustainability topics. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. Battery costs have been a major barrier to increasing BEV penetration. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Morgan Stanley is differentiated by the caliber of our diverse team. From volatility and geopolitics to economic trends and investment outlooks, stay informed on the key developments shaping today's markets. Investments inforeign marketsentail special risks such as currency, political, economic, market and liquidity risks. Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check. document.write(new Date().getFullYear()); MorganStanley.All rights reserved. Aerospace & defense majors have been making investments, startups are attracting capital, and megatech platforms are actively involved. 2023Morgan Stanley. Investments inforeign marketsentail special risks such as currency, political, economic, market and liquidity risks. Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategys relevant offering document. 5 Sustainable Investing Trends for Companies and Investors, 7 Investment Ideas That Could Drive Markets in 2023, Yes, You Can Be a Tech Innovator at Morgan Stanley. Everything we do at Morgan Stanley is guided by our five core values: Do the right thing, put clients first, lead with exceptional ideas, commit to diversity and inclusion, and give back. A timely analysis of market-changing events and their impact on the investment landscape. Current numbers vary widely from country to country, depending on the maturity of the market. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g. Se lf-Driving the New Auto Industry Pa r-adigm; November 2013. But in a future of shared, autonomous vehicles with much higher utilization, electric cars make far more economic sense than their gasoline counterparts. Spurred in part by existing and proposed emissions legislation that could sharply increase the cost of manufacturing internal combustion engines, as many as one billion battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could be on the road throughout the world by 2050. It's still early days for urban air mobility, but Morgan Stanley Research believes that autonomous aircraft could be common by 2040. As a global financial services firm, Morgan Stanley is committed to technological innovation. Hear their stories and learn about how they are redefining the terms of success. Since our founding in 1935, Morgan Stanley has consistently delivered first-class business in a first-class way. "In True Redundancy, Hayon has designed for future AVs a system that ensures uncompromised safety and unmatched scalability," the spokesperson said. We deliver active investment strategies across public and private markets and custom solutions to institutional and individual investors. A former trade negotiator for the Obama administration, Lia Theodosiou-Pisanelli is now Aurora's head of partnerships, product, and programs. Hear their stories and learn about how they are redefining the terms of success. Shipping goods would likely be the first use case because of the lower degree of technological barriers (weight, size, etc.) Share. Traditional financial institutions try harnessing the blockchain to streamline operations and costs, while improving services and products for clients. Morgan Stanley has developed a framework to assess the appeal of shared, autonomous and electric vehicles in particular countries and regions. Underpinning all that we do are five core values. Whether its hardware, software or age-old businesses, everything today is ripe for disruption. This move clearly indicates GM strategy to invest heavily on electric and autonomous cars and minimize expenses in current business to carve out ways to invest in new technologies. Long-term trends, including technology's impact on pricing, are likely to keep inflation at bay for longer than economists originally expected. But making an alternative a reality will require rethinking some assumptions. Our culture of access and inclusion has built our legacy and shapes our future, helping to strengthen our business and bring value to clients. Meet one of our Financial Advisors and see how we can help you.